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The newly formed Expert Council of the Federal Government did not want to make its latest calculations, i.e. models, available to the public. A British “modeler” gives an insight into his work – and it surprises.

One of the great mysteries that will certainly occupy journalists and historians on various levels in the coming decades is the phenomenon of globally parallel dynamics and almost identical catalogs of measures in use against a virus called Corona.

With the beginning of the Corona crisis in spring 2020, the concept of “modeling” will acquire a new media meaning as a pre-analytical representation of scenarios. With the experience of the past two years, legitimate questions have arisen since then. What are the political intentions and expectations? How is the motivation of the modeling experts defined? The published results are difficult to assess for the intended target group, the public. In any case, they should be questioned.

Asked in April 2020 an article on spektrum.de: “Simulations that guide governments. Entire states are aligning their policies with computer models that predict the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. But how reliable are such simulations? ”A question that is not entirely unjustified, or to put it another way – to whom should the modeling ultimately benefit, citizens or politicians? Maybe someone else entirely? The article states: “How well the simulations depict the course of this pandemic will probably only be seen in a few months or years. In order to be able to assess the value of the Covid-19 models, one must know how they are created and the assumptions on which they are based


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