Vladimir Putin is known as a strategic chess player. Now the world will see how well he can play poker.
Russia has declared that it will not bluff with its categorical security demands before the high-level negotiations with its American partners in Geneva. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov vowed this week that Russia would take a hard line and that the time for vague compromises was over.
History has sufficiently shown that words and promises are unnecessary when it comes to US and NATO leaders giving Russia pledges not to attack. Three decades in which NATO militarism has invaded Russia’s borders is enough proof.
In future there will have to be legally binding rules for safety management. That is not yet a guarantee of compliance. Several arms control treaties have been thrown overboard by US governments since the Cold War. Nevertheless, a legal framework is a basic requirement. After that, however, there needs to be a credible alternative warning mechanism to enforce the rules.
Moscow’s demands stipulate that the US-led NATO military alliance end its eastward expansion and also grant membership to former Soviet republics such as Ukraine and Georgia. Second, the US must withdraw the strike weapons stationed in Eastern Europe, e. B. those planned in Poland and Romania or those planned in the Baltic states.
The fact that the United States subsequently held negotiations in Geneva on January 10 and NATO talks with Russian officials on January 12 shows that Washington and its allies have recognized the gravity of Moscow’s concerns. These concerns have been simmering for years amid the unstoppable expansion of NATO since the end of the Cold War. But recent Ukraine-related tensions, which have baselessly accused Russia of planning an invasion, have brought Moscow’s patience to boil.
In the eyes of Russia, it is the USA and its NATO partners who, through their ruthless military build-up, have created dangerous instability and the threat of war in Eastern Europe and especially in Ukraine.
The prompt reaction of the US and NATO to hold talks in Geneva is certainly a sign of a change in attitude. For years the Americans and Europeans dismissed Russia’s warnings. Incredibly, NATO has not held high-level meetings with Russia in almost two and a half years.
Now, it seems, Washington and its NATO allies are finally paying attention. However, there are indications that the Western powers are still unable to understand Russia’s security requirements. The US and NATO have already haughtily dismissed Russia’s red lines that rule out further eastward expansion.
Speaking about the upcoming negotiations in Geneva, a spokesman for the National Security Council of the White House said the US would not take any decisions without the involvement of other NATO allies and partners, including Ukraine. This means that Washington’s initial response to Russia will be limited by the anti-Russian, irrational views of Poland, the Baltic states and the derelict Kiev regime.
The National Security Council spokesman said the negotiations “will not involve anything about our allies and partners without our allies and partners, including Ukraine … President Biden’s approach to Ukraine was clear and consistent: to unite the alliance behind two rails – deterrence and diplomacy. As an alliance, we agree on the consequences that Russia would have to face if it proceeded against Ukraine. “
In other words, the signs suggest that Washington still does not get it. Basically, it sticks to its arrogant delusion of unilateralism and Russophobia towards Russia.
Therefore Moscow knows that it must be ready to increase the stakes to a level that amounts to an imminent existential threat to the US. Only in this serious situation will the language of concern for safety be understood. That is what Russia means when it says that it is not bluffing and that a number of military-technical options are available.
What could these options be?
Randy Martin, a US-based analyst, believes Moscow will urgently threaten Washington with nuclear war in order to rouse the careless Americans and show them how far their machinations have come.
“Russia has set out what it needs for its vital national security. Russia will explain what it needs to the United States and it will await a legal agreement. Anything that does not conform to this will be disastrous for the West. If the US and NATO do not act quickly to ensure the security Russia expects, Moscow will quickly put a nuclear dagger at their throats. These include tactical submarine nuclear weapons that can be deployed within seconds, cruise missiles within minutes and the obliteration of western space defense, as well as electronic warfare that makes sea and air defenses unusable. “
It is telling that Russia successfully launched an anti-satellite missile last month. This came as a shock to the US and NATO. Obviously this was a demonstration of what Russia could do to American defense satellites that would render the United States defenseless.
American commentator John Rachel suggests that Russia could move its missile systems to Uncle Sam’s supposed backyard.
“Hypersonic cruise missiles in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua could grab someone’s attention over cocktails in DC,” he notes dryly.
Russia’s development of hypersonic weapons gives it an advantage over the United States.
The latter step follows the precedent for the US to deploy ballistic missile systems in Eastern Europe that can hit Moscow in minutes. Therefore, it is not an unjustified aggression for Russia to deploy weapons in a matter of minutes to obliterate Washington. Rather, it is a rebalancing of the balance of horror that complacent American rulers have become accustomed to believing that they alone have the monopoly on it.
One thing seems certain. The upcoming security talks between the US and Russia will develop into an event that is second to none. Russia has reached a threshold of intolerance towards further American duplicity and empty assertions. Unless far-reaching security guarantees are in place, Russia will next put some serious military cards on the table.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is known as a strategic chess player. It looks like the world will see how well he can play poker.